- Global growth at ~3%: IMF projects 2026 global growth around 3%, but flags risks from energy shocks, high public debt and stalled disinflation.
- Imbalances widen: Excess global imbalances rose by 0.7% of GDP in 2025, the biggest decade‑long jump, with major contributions from the US and China.
- Bond market stress: Rising yields on 10‑year and 30‑year government bonds in the US, UK, Germany and Japan signal higher borrowing costs and inflation worries.
- Oil price pressure: Brent near $95–$97 keeps inflation risks alive, especially for import‑dependent economies like India.
- US equities rebound: Tech‑led gains lifted the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq even as oil and yields stayed elevated.
- India’s 7.8% growth: June‑quarter GDP at 7.8% beat RBI forecasts, supporting the “fastest‑growing major economy” narrative.
- India inflation trajectory: Retail inflation trending up, with RBI expecting 5.9% average in Q4 2026 due to fuel and food price pressures.
- RBI liquidity tools: The $136.37 billion response to RBI’s forex swap shows deep liquidity buffers and active management of rupee stability.
- Market reaction to crude: Indian stocks fell as crude neared $97, highlighting sensitivity to West Asia conflict and import bills.
- Long‑term growth story: Policymakers tied current reforms and stability measures to a path toward a $30‑trillion economy over the coming decades.
