- Indian equities faced a cautious start amid global technology weakness and volatile crude prices. Investors weighed the relief from falling oil against concerns over foreign outflows and global growth. Domestic benchmarks were expected to remain sensitive to US earnings and Federal Reserve signals.
- The Indian rupee strengthened to around 94.84 per dollar, gaining about 0.10 per cent on the day. The currency was supported by lower crude prices and Reserve Bank of India measures to manage foreign-exchange demand. It had strengthened about 1.53 per cent over the previous month.
- The RBI’s special foreign-exchange window for state-owned oil refiners helped reduce spot-market dollar demand. The central bank’s FCNR(B) deposit scheme also mobilised additional foreign-currency inflows. These measures provided near-term support to the rupee.
- Brent crude fell about 2.7 per cent to roughly $110.4 per barrel, while WTI dropped about 2.9 per cent to around $101.1 per barrel. The decline followed diplomatic progress signals involving Iran and Qatar. For India, lower crude reduces import costs and eases pressure on inflation, the currency and corporate margins.
- Despite the day’s fall, oil remained structurally elevated after a sharp October rise. Brent had climbed 13.6 per cent during the previous month. Continued attacks on tankers in the Gulf kept supply disruption risks on the table.
- The Nasdaq’s nearly 10 per cent fall from its recent peak remained the dominant global market story. Investors worried that heavy AI spending may not translate quickly into profits. Technology valuations and semiconductor earnings became key risks for global equities.
- Intel’s nearly 29 per cent plunge intensified concerns in the semiconductor sector. Investors awaited Apple’s quarterly earnings and commentary on iPhone 18 sales. The results were seen as a test of consumer technology demand and AI-related investment returns.
- Asian markets were mixed: Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3 per cent, South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.4 per cent, and the broader Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.2 per cent. European futures were mildly positive. The mixed picture reflected uncertainty rather than a clear directional trend.
- European bonds rallied as investors sought safety. The spread between German and French government bonds returned to about 164 basis points. The move indicated continued caution over fiscal and political risks in Europe.
- India’s growth outlook received a positive signal, with the country’s growth forecast raised. This strengthened the argument that India may remain relatively resilient if global growth slows. However, high oil prices and capital-flow volatility remain key vulnerabilities.
- India’s inflation picture remained sensitive to food prices and crude oil. Earlier data had shown retail inflation at 5.54 per cent in September, driven largely by food inflation. Any sustained fall in crude could provide some relief, though food prices remain decisive.
- Reliance Industries surged 11.6 per cent after record second-quarter earnings, providing a major boost to Indian market sentiment. The rally came as crude prices fell. Strong earnings from a heavyweight stock can support broader indices even in a weak global environment.
- Foreign portfolio flows remained a watch point for Indian markets. Investors may diversify away from technology-heavy markets, potentially benefiting India, but persistent outflows and firm US Treasury yields could offset this. Currency stability will be crucial for sustaining foreign investor confidence.
- The US midterm elections emerged as a major near-term catalyst for global markets. Their outcome could influence expectations on US fiscal policy, regulation, trade and energy. Emerging markets, including India, will watch the dollar and US bond yields closely.
