- Oil‑driven risk‑off sentiment lifted US 10‑year yields to around 4.756%, with crude in the mid‑$80s to low‑$90s range, tightening global financial conditions and raising borrowing costs for emerging markets.
- US equities lost altitude into month‑end, with the S&P 500 down 0.33% to 7,686, Dow falling 0.70% to 53,186 and Nasdaq slipping 0.12% to 26,371, as geopolitics and rates weighed on cyclicals.
- Brazil’s central bank cut the Selic benchmark to 14.00% in early August, its fourth straight 25‑bp move, while the real traded near 5.15–5.20 per dollar, keeping carry attractive but limiting aggressive easing.
- India’s Q1 GDP at 7.8% signaled broad‑based expansion, though market participants parsed sectoral contributions and inflation risks from crude spikes to assess sustainability.
- Indian markets saw sharp volatility with Nifty closing at 24,055 after slipping below 24,000, pressured by auto and banking stocks; the rupee strengthened to 94.95 against the dollar.
- Corporate guidance leaned cautious on input costs and freight, while domestic demand pockets in autos and consumer durables showed resilience, supporting selective bullishness.
- Fiscal consolidation remained a watch item as global bond volatility underscored the cost of slippages, with rating watchers tracking subsidy rationalization and capex quality.
- Trade negotiators prepared for BRICS and SCO follow‑ups, weighing currency settlement mechanisms and energy procurement options against sanctions risk and compliance constraints.
